Economies in Transition: A System of Models and Forecasts for Germany and Poland ~ Paperback

Developing a system of models and forecasts for the transformation process of former centrally planned economies into market economies, this book outlines a simulation model for the united Germany showing the likely path of the "New Lands" integration into West Germany by the year 2000. The book introduces the concept of a quarterly macroeconometric model aimed at forecasting and scenario analysis of stabilization and antirecession policies exemplified by a new model for Poland. It contains information on new software ETAS generating models and SIMUL for efficient simulations. All the models and forecasts contain new annual databases for Germany and quarterly data for the Polish economy, therefore the book is also a source of statistical material.Table of Contents1. On the concept of a system of econometric forecasting and simulation models for the period of transition towards the market economies.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.2 Towards a system of economic forecasts and policy simulations for the transition period.- 1.3 On a system of macro models.- 1.4 The system of economic forecasts and policy simulations.- 1.5 The numerical techniques.- 1.6 Further research plans.- References.- 1. Germany.- 2. The system of models.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 The model for West Germany.- 2.2.1 Commodity market.- 2.2.2 Money market.- 2.2.3 Labour market.- 2.2.4 Technical details.- 2.3 The model for East Germany.- 2.4 The model for East-West trade.- 2.5 The equations of the system of models.- 2.5.1 Model for West Germany.- 2.5.2 Model for East Germany.- 2.5.3 Model for East-West trade.- 2.6 The structural equations of West Germany.- 2.6.1 Commodity market.- 2.6.2 Money market.- 2.6.3 Labour market.- 2.6.4 Regression results.- 2.7 Future improvements.- 2.8 List of variables.- 3. The basic simulation.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Assumptions.- 3.3 Selected results.- 3.4 Some comments.- 3.5 Tables (values).- 3.5.1 Endogenous variables.- 3.5.2 Exogenous variables.- 3.6 Tables (growth rates).- 3.6.1 Endogenous variables.- 3.6.2 Exogenous variables.- 3.7 Selected Graphs.- 3.7.1 Endogenous variables.- 3.7.2 Exogenous variables.- References.- Appendices.- Appendix 1. ETAS, Conception and features of an econometric model generator.- 1. Conception of the program system ETAS.- 2. Summary of features of version 1.0.- 3. Enhancements in version 1.1.- Appendix 2. On portfolio models of the Federal Republic of Germany.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Aspects of portfolio theory.- 3. Empirical portfolio models.- 4. Critical evaluation.- 5. Suggestions for further research.- 6. Literature.- 2. Poland.- 4. Quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy in transition.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Data base, extraneous information and estimation techniques.- 4.3 General structure of the model.- 4.3.1 Macro aggregates in the quarterly model - general framework.- 4.3.2 General assumptions on functioning of the economy in transition.- 4.3.3 Major macro-relations.- 4.4 Specification and empirical results for major blocks of variables.- 4.4.1 Final demand components.- 4.4.2 Wages, incomes and money expenditures of households.- 4.4.3 Activities and financial position of enterprises in production and services sector.- 4.4.4 Foreign trade.- 4.4.5 The banking system activitities.- 4.4.6 State budget.- 4.4.7 Prices.- 4.4.8 Employment.- 4.5 The model as a system. First conclusions.- References.- 5. Dynamic expectations in the quarterly model of the Polish economy.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 Expectations in the model.- 5.3 Rational expectations algorithm.- 5.4 Estimation and base solution of the model.- 5.5 Results of policy simulations.- 5.6 Conclusions.- References.- 6. Data base for the quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy.- 6.1 General remarks.- 6.2 The problem of generating unobservable macro aggregates.- 6.2.1 Derivation of quarterly time series for macro aggregates for Poland.- References.- Appendices.- Appendix 1. List of variables for the quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy.- Appendix 2. The structure of the quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy.- Appendix 3. Excerpt from the quarterly data bank for the period 1989.1-1991.2.